Defilytica
HIP-4
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FAQ

How to read this terminal

A user guide for the dashboard, market board, signals, hedging, settlements, data status, and model caveats. Hover any tagged term in the app to see a short definition; tooltip links bring you to the matching entry here.

Terminal overview

What does this terminal do?#

HIP-4 Analytics is a research terminal for Hyperliquid outcome contracts. It brings together live markets, probability moves, liquidity quality, perp-vs-outcome gaps, YES/NO price sums, hedge modeling, event races, global activity, and settlement tracking. It helps you read the market; it does not place orders.

What is HIP-4?#

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's outcome-contract primitive. The simplest form is binary: a contract settles to $1 if the named condition is true at expiry and $0 if it is false. For this terminal, the important point is that outcome contracts sit next to Hyperliquid perps and spot, so event risk can be compared, hedged, and monitored in the same trading environment.

Why is there a separate "Yes" side and "No" side?#

Each binary outcome has two tradable sides: YES pays if the condition resolves true, and NO pays if it resolves false. The two sides can have different liquidity, spreads, volume, and open interest. In a clean two-sided market, YES + NO should be close to $1; when it is not, the terminal can surface a completeness signal.

What are multi-candidate events?#

Some events have more than two possible winners. The terminal groups those as event races, with candidate probabilities, total probability sum, expiry, liquidity, and links into each candidate market. Each candidate can still appear as its own YES/NO row.

Can I place orders from this terminal?#

No. This is an analytics-only terminal. Orders happen on Hyperliquid. The "Trade on Hyperliquid" link opens the matching market in the Hyperliquid app, but this site does not route, sign, or submit orders.

Home dashboard

What is the dashboard status banner?#

The banner gives the fastest read on current market conditions: actionable opportunities, combined net edge estimate, markets expiring within 24 hours, and the top market to inspect first. If nothing qualifies, the dashboard shows that the market is quiet.

How should I read the Opportunity desk?#

It ranks the strongest places to inspect across several signal types: Hedge for perp-vs-outcome divergence, Package for YES/NO price-sum gaps, Expiry for near-settlement risk, Flow for sharp 24h probability moves, and Liquidity for improving books. The ranking blends modeled edge, urgency, tradability, and spread cost so thin markets do not dominate just because a raw signal looks large.

What does Market pulse show?#

Market pulse is the quick orientation panel beside the Opportunity desk. It shows whether prices are streaming or refreshing by snapshot, total market count, active/ending/expired counts, the busiest category, and the largest 24h probability mover.

How much of the HIP-4 universe does the terminal cover?#

Every live HIP-4 market on the selected network appears in the terminal. The home dashboard's KPI strip and category breakdown together cover total volume, trades, active markets, open interest, YES share, and the per-category split. Two secondary reads sit behind the scenes: the share of 24h volume in standardized price-binary markets (those with an underlying, strike, and expiry) and the share of active markets the terminal can evaluate locally for resolution. Both run close to 100% in normal conditions; if you want to verify, the Quality and Liquidity tab on the signals page enumerates anything that falls short.

What does Global activity show?#

Global activity aggregates the live HIP-4 market set: 24h volume, open interest, active markets, trade count, recent volume history, and category breakdown. The chart reads hourly snapshots and patches the current bucket live, so it may take a moment to populate on a fresh deployment or first load.

What is the Market activity panel?#

It is a tabbed activity feed. Volume shows the busiest outcome groups. Events shows multi-candidate races and the probability sum across candidates. Markets closest to settlement live in the dedicated Expiring panel above.

How does the terminal flag market-quality issues?#

Four checks run on every refresh — resolution gaps (markets the terminal cannot evaluate locally), thin books (below the open-interest or 24h-volume thresholds), wide spread (best bid and ask more than 10 percentage points apart), and stale or dead markets (no recent activity). When any are tripped, a N flagged chip appears in the footer status bar and links to the Quality and Liquidity tab on the signals page where each flagged market is enumerated. A healthy run stays silent — no chip means nothing tripped.

Market board & detail pages

What is the difference between Markets, Families, and Events?#

Markets is the row-per-side view for searching, sorting, filtering, and watching individual contracts. Families groups related contracts by underlying or event question so you can see where liquidity concentrates. Events groups multi-candidate races and shows candidates under the parent question.

What does the Quality grade mean?#

Quality is a liquidity score. It uses volume and open interest for every market, and live bid/ask spread where top-of-book data is available. A and B are healthier books; D and F need caution. A good grade does not guarantee fill quality, but a bad grade is a strong warning.

What is on a market detail page?#

Detail pages combine the outcome chart, order book, recent trades, liquidity stats, settlement status, completeness check, related hedge panel, expiry-convergence warning, related contracts, and underlying perp insights. For multi-candidate events, the page also shows the parent event context and lets you switch candidates.

What are Perp insights used for?#

Perp insights show the underlying perp market that can explain or hedge a price-binary outcome: mark/oracle spread, open interest, volume, funding, premium, and predicted funding across venues where available. This is context for modeling and risk, not a trade instruction.

Tools & filters

What is the Tradable filter?#

The Tradable filter hides markets whose open interest, 24h volume, or spread fall below your thresholds. It is default-on for opportunity hunting because thin books can make large modeled edges impossible to realize. You can edit the thresholds from the control next to the toggle, and your settings stay on this device.

How does the watchlist work?#

Click the star next to any market to add it to your watchlist. Watchlist filters on the market board, signals, and hedging views narrow the page to starred markets. Starred markets are kept on this device and are not hidden by the Tradable filter.

Signals

Signals turn live market state into a shorter inspection list. They are analytical flags, not instructions to trade.

What is a DIV (divergence) signal?#

The model-implied probability from the reference perp differs from the outcome market price by at least 5 percentage points. For price-binary markets, the terminal estimates that probability from the underlying perp price, strike, time to expiry, and volatility assumption. The signal tells you which side looks cheaper versus the model and what the corresponding perp hedge direction would be.

How should I use the Signals page filters?#

Use the signal-kind tabs to isolate divergence, completeness, expiring, or quality/liquidity rows. Use the edge threshold to hide small modeled opportunities, and use actionable-only or tradable-only when you want a shorter worklist. Quality rows remain useful even when they are not tradable because they explain why a market is being filtered out.

What is a COMP (completeness) signal?#

YES price + NO price deviates from $1. Below $1 means buying both sides would pay $1 at settlement before fees and slippage. Above $1 points to an overpriced package if you have inventory to short. The terminal uses executable ask prices when available, but the package is not atomic, so treat the row as a prompt to inspect the order book.

What is an EXP (expiring) signal?#

EXP flags markets approaching settlement, especially where gamma is high. Near expiry, a small move in the underlying can sharply change probability and hedge size. EXP is often an attention signal rather than an edge signal.

What is a QUAL (quality / liquidity) signal?#

Quality/liquidity rows explain market health. DEAD means no volume and no open interest. STALE means open interest exists but there have been no trades in 24h. WIDE means the best bid and ask are far apart. These rows are warnings, not opportunities.

What is "edge"?#

Edge is modeled gross profit in USDH before liquidity and spread adjustments. It is not guaranteed PnL. It assumes the model is right and fills are close to displayed prices, which is why net edge and liquidity checks matter more than raw edge.

What is "net edge" vs "raw edge"?#

Raw edge is the model output before liquidity adjustment. Net edge caps modeled size using open interest and subtracts spread cost when bid/ask data is available. The scanner ranks by net edge so a large theoretical signal on a tiny book does not dominate the page.

What is "capacity"?#

Capacity is the notional the terminal is willing to model for a signal after looking at current open interest. It is a conservative sizing proxy, not a promise that the order book can absorb the whole trade cleanly.

What is "spread tax"?#

Spread tax is the estimated cost of crossing the bid/ask spread at the modeled size. When the terminal does not have live bid/ask data for that market, spread tax is shown as unknown instead of being treated as zero.

Hedging & math

The hedging tools model binary-event exposure against the reference perp. The outputs are useful for sizing and risk review, but they depend on model assumptions.

What is the Hedging page for?#

The Hedging page lists detected outcome-plus-perp setups from live divergence data. It shows the outcome leg, hedge leg, suggested sizing, scenario PnL, Greeks, status, and why the row is active or only worth watching.

What is the hedge calculator for?#

The hedge calculator lets you model a setup before trading it: outcome side, size, entry probability, perp direction, hedge ratio, fees, funding rate, and funding cadence. It outputs scenario PnL, max gain/loss, breakeven probability, PnL chart, and Greeks. Presets can load from live opportunities, but you can also use it manually.

What is delta (Δ)?#

Delta is a model sensitivity reference. In this terminal it is useful for reading direction and moneyness, but it is not the right number for sizing a cash-or-nothing binary hedge. Use the hedge multiplier for that.

What is gamma (Γ)?#

Gamma is the rate of change of delta. Near the strike and near expiry, gamma on a binary can spike. Small spot moves can rapidly change the implied probability and the modeled hedge size, which is why the terminal flags gamma-heavy setups.

What is sigma (σ)?#

Sigma is the annualized volatility input used by the pricing model. The terminal estimates it from the underlying perp's recent move, with a floor to avoid broken outputs. It is a coarse proxy, not an implied-volatility surface, so divergence, hedge multiplier, and Greeks should be treated as directional model outputs.

What is vega (ν)?#

Vega is the sensitivity of a contract's price to the volatility input (σ). For a vanilla call, vega is positive everywhere — more vol means more upside dispersion is possible. A single binary is different: vega flips sign at the strike. OTM, more vol helps (raises the chance of crossing into the money); ITM, more vol hurts (raises the chance of falling back out). Chain enough binaries together into a strip and the per-binary anomalies cancel — net vega of a contiguous YES strip telescopes back to the vanilla capped-call vega.

What is the hedge multiplier? Why not delta?#

For a binary contract, the dimensionally-correct sizing for a delta-neutral perp hedge is the hedge multiplier. It tells you how much perp notional to use per dollar of outcome exposure. YES exposure is generally hedged with a short perp; NO exposure is generally hedged with a long perp. Large multipliers mean the setup is gamma-heavy and needs frequent review.

What does "moneyness" mean?#

How far the underlying spot is from the strike, expressed as a percentage. Negative = below strike, positive = above. ATM (0%) is the regime where binary Greeks are most extreme.

What does "T-minus" mean?#

Hours remaining until the market expires and settles.

What is "overround" / why does Σ Yes+No matter?#

On an event race, Σ is the sum of YES probabilities across all candidates, including fallback/other when present. Around 100% is normal. Meaningful deviations can point to completeness pressure across the whole event, not just one candidate.

Strategies

The Strategies page groups price-binaries into a strike ladder so you can read HIP-4 as an options surface and combine legs into payoff-aware baskets.

What is a strike ladder?#

All price-binary markets for one underlying and one expiry, stacked by strike. Adjacent YES prices encode the market-implied terminal distribution: the probability mass between two strikes is YES(lower) − YES(upper). Reading the ladder is the closest HIP-4 equivalent to looking at an options chain.

What is a call ladder?#

A basket of YES legs across rising strikes. Each leg pays $1 at expiry if the underlying ends above its strike. The basket keeps winning the further the underlying moves up — a digital, call-spread-like ramp rather than a single directional bet. The Strategies page builds one with the “Call ladder” preset.

What is a range bump?#

A long-only approximation of a range bet: long YES at a lower strike plus long NO at a higher strike. Inside the range both legs settle in-the-money for a $2 payout; outside, only one leg pays $1. PnL is positive inside the range when total premium is below $2 and negative outside when it's above $1. A true range needs short legs on the wings, which HIP-4 doesn't expose, so this is the closest buy-only construction.

What is an implied bucket?#

Probability mass implied by adjacent YES prices — YES(K_lo) − YES(K_hi) — for the bucket between them. The full ladder of buckets is the market-implied terminal distribution. Negative buckets are monotonicity breaks.

What is a monotonicity break?#

A higher strike priced above a lower strike on the same side (YES). That implies negative probability mass for the bucket between them, which is a no-arb violation. In thin HIP-4 books this is usually quote noise rather than a real arb, but the terminal flags it so you can inspect liquidity and decide whether the surface is still usable.

How does the perp overlay work for a basket?#

For each leg, the modeled hedge multiplier maps the binary exposure into a perp notional. YES legs get a short perp sign, NO legs get a long perp sign, and the page sums them into a net direction and notional. Coverage shows how many legs have a model — if upstream divergence data hasn't arrived for a leg, the overlay degrades gracefully rather than guessing.

Provenance tags

Tags explain where a number came from and how much caution to apply.

LIVE#

Streaming from Hyperliquid market data. Updates as quotes change.

POLLED#

Refreshed by periodic snapshots. May lag the latest order book briefly.

BOOK#

Live best bid and ask are available for this market. Quality and spread reflect current top-of-book data.

EST#

Estimated from a model, such as binary pricing, hedge sizing, edge, or settlement approximation. Useful for research, not guaranteed PnL.

STALE#

No recent volume, or the spread is wide enough that quoted prices may not be tradable.

Settlements

What is on the Settlements page?#

The Settlements page shows markets approaching expiry, a calendar-style bucket view, and a local ledger of markets that have passed their cutoff. It is useful for tracking calibration: whether the market's last implied probability lined up with the outcome.

How are settled outcomes determined?#

For price-binary outcomes, the terminal approximates YES/NO from the underlying perp around expiry because the public market feed does not expose every official resolution. If Hyperliquid uses a different observation rule, the terminal can be wrong. Multi-candidate winners are shown when Hyperliquid exposes the settled candidate in market metadata.

Why is "Crowd accuracy" prefixed with ≈?#

Because the underlying YES/NO call is approximated (see above). The KPI is informational; treat the trend over time as more meaningful than any single number.

Where is settled-market history stored?#

On this device. Clearing browser storage clears the ledger. The terminal does not currently maintain a shared user account or shared settlement history.

Network & status

Is mainnet supported?#

Yes. The terminal defaults to mainnet. Use the network toggle in the footer to switch between mainnet and testnet; your choice is kept on this device. Each network has its own available markets and liquidity, so an empty or quiet view usually means Hyperliquid has not exposed active HIP-4 markets on that network yet.

Where does the data come from?#

From public Hyperliquid market data. Live quotes and trades stream when available; slower snapshots fill in as a fallback. The terminal also derives analytics in the browser: probabilities, signal rankings, quality flags, hedges, activity charts, and settlement approximations. You do not need to connect a wallet to use the analytics.

For full legal terms, see Disclaimer & Terms of Use. This site is not affiliated with Hyperliquid.