Probability
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Snapshot history
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SP500 Outcome Contracts19
Same underlying — use to hedge perps or express different views on this asset.
SP500 > $7,561 (Nov 4) — No0.8%SP500 > $7,770 (Nov 4) — No98.7%SP500 > $7,695 (Nov 4) — No24.9%SP500 > $7,595 (Nov 6) — No10.6%SP500 > $7,670 (Nov 6) — No24.4%SP500 > $7,670 (Nov 6) — Yes75.6%SP500 > $7,525 (Nov 9) — Yes93.2%SP500 > $7,595 (Nov 6) — Yes89.4%SP500 > $7,520 (Nov 6) — No2.6%SP500 > $7,520 (Nov 6) — Yes97.4%SP500 > $7,695 (Nov 4) — Yes75.1%SP500 > $7,525 (Nov 9) — No6.8%SP500 > $7,770 (Nov 4) — Yes1.3%SP500 > $7,450 (Nov 9) — Yes96.1%SP500 > $7,450 (Nov 9) — No3.9%SP500 > $7,600 (Nov 9) — Yes86.5%SP500 > $7,600 (Nov 9) — No13.5%SP500 > $7,845 (Nov 4) — Yes1.8%SP500 > $7,845 (Nov 4) — No98.2%
YES + NO price sum
Yes99.2%
No0.8%
Mid sum100.0%
Ask sumnot quoted
Mid-based sum is indicative. Check the order book to estimate executable cost.
Market Note
Market is pricing a near-certain outcome at 99.2%. Consider the asymmetric risk/reward before trading.
Resolves on xyz:SP500-USDC perp mark · 60s TWAP (deployer-declared)