Probability
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Snapshot history
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BTC Outcome Contracts37
Same underlying — use to hedge perps or express different views on this asset.
BTC touches $65,000 by Oct 1 — No91.5%BTC touches $60,000 by Oct 1 — No97.6%BTC touches $85,000 by Oct 1 — No73.8%BTC touches $90,000 by Oct 1 — No90.5%BTC touches $95,000 by Oct 1 — No96.7%BTC touches $85,000 by Oct 1 — Yes26.2%BTC touches $100,000 by Oct 1 — No98.7%BTC touches $70,000 by Oct 1 — No74.7%BTC touches $65,000 by Oct 1 — Yes8.5%BTC touches $70,000 by Oct 1 — Yes25.3%BTC touches $90,000 by Oct 1 — Yes9.5%BTC > $77,179 (Sep 13) [1d] — Yes57.1%BTC > $77,179 (Sep 13) [1d] — No43.0%BTC touches $95,000 by Oct 1 — Yes3.3%BTC touches $60,000 by Oct 1 — Yes2.4%BTC > $100,000 (Oct 1) — No98.2%BTC touches $100,000 by Oct 1 — Yes1.3%BTC: Above $78,722 (Sep 13) — No95.2%BTC > $100,000 (Oct 1) — Yes1.9%BTC: $75,635 to $78,722 (Sep 13) — Yes50.0%BTC: $75,635 to $78,722 (Sep 13) — No50.0%BTC > $77,259 (Sep 12) — Yes63.5%BTC > $77,259 (Sep 12) — No36.5%BTC > $77,000 (Sep 12) — Yes87.5%BTC > $77,000 (Sep 12) — No12.5%BTC > $77,250 (Sep 12) — Yes57.0%BTC > $77,250 (Sep 12) — No43.0%BTC > $77,500 (Sep 12) — Yes16.0%BTC > $77,500 (Sep 12) — No84.0%BTC > $77,259 (Sep 12) — Yes81.0%BTC > $77,259 (Sep 12) — No19.0%BTC > $76,650 (Sep 13) — Yes50.0%BTC > $76,650 (Sep 13) — No50.0%BTC > $77,850 (Sep 13) — Yes48.0%BTC > $77,850 (Sep 13) — No52.0%BTC: Below $75,635 (Sep 13) — Yes2.3%BTC: Below $75,635 (Sep 13) — No97.7%
YES + NO price sum
Yes4.8%
No95.2%
Mid sum100.0%
Ask sumnot quoted
Mid-based sum is indicative. Check the order book to estimate executable cost.
Market Note
Market is pricing a near-certain outcome at 4.8%. Consider the asymmetric risk/reward before trading.